What If?

Last night I got curious. What if the Colts played the Saints this year who would be the better team. So, I broke down both teams by what I feel are crucial match ups and could give one team a decided advantage with each match up. Then I had each team play each other on a random simulation up to ten times to find out who would definitely win this year in a head 2 head game. The results after the breakdown. I also take into consideration the only common opponent as to date, the Miami Dolphins.

This analysis will be three parts:

1. Head 2 Head rating scale (all points will be added up and most points wins)
2. Common Opponent (in this case Miami)
3. The Head 2 Head Simulation (will use a randomize for ten computer match ups and best of ten wins and an Eleventh game will be used as a tiebreaker)

At the end of the triple parts a winner will emerge.

Points will be awarded for position on a 1-5 Scale. Highest total at the end should win the simulation, and henceforth a head 2 head match up.




2009 Indianapolis Colts vs. 2009 New Orleans Saints



Quarterbacks



Peyton Manning -- 5
Drew Brees -- 4.5




Manning barely edges out Brees this season. Brees is having a tremendous year and has virtually the same record as Peyton. But I like the fact that Manning has thrown for over 300 yards in every game except one. Even though Brees has more TDs to date he also has more INTs.

Running Backs


Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, and Chad Simpson -- 3.5
Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush --4.5



Although I absolutely love D. Brown potential and flashes of brilliance this year; Addai has only been a mediocre back whom on another team would probably be second string not the starter. And Chad Simpson just plain sucks especially if you consider his production against R. Bush; Bush is much more exciting especially on the kick returns. The Saints have not missed a beat starting either or P. Thomas or M. Bell, and have been getting good consistent run yards, therefore I give the Saints the edge on running backs.



Wide Recievers


Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez (if not injured) -- 4



Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem -- 3.5




This was another close match up because right now R. Wayne and M. Colston are elite receivers in the league. The other guys on each team however are quality role players. Love the Colts Garcon but has to sure up his hands; it seems that he drops the ball more than he should ditto that about D. Henderson of the Saints, although he had a spectacular catch on the sidelines during Monday night. The Colts though get the edge here with Austin Collie over Lance Moore and a non-injured A. Gonzalez over Meachem. And the Colts addition of Hank Baskett (whom I think will produce once he learns the system; he is still a young receiver with potential and a playmate wife)




Tight Ends

Dallas Clark -- 5
Jeremy Shockey --4



Dallas Clark 'nuff said; arguably the best tight end in the NFL right now, so naturally he gets a 5. Shockey on the other hand three weeks ago I probably would have rated them between a 2 and 3, but he seems to have passion again and Brees is getting him the ball more. I would not be surprised if he ends up making the Pro Bowl. But all in all again Dallas Clark is the top tight end right now.



Offensive Line



Charlie Johnson, Ryan Lilja, Jeff Saturday, Mike Pollak, Ryan Diem -- 4


Jermon Bushrod, Carl Nicks, Jonathan Goodwin, Jahri Evans, Jon Stinchcomb -- 4.5




I have been pleasantly surprised by Charlie's production this year. I have to be honest, I thought Caldwell was making a mistake starting Johnson over Ugoh, but that is why he is Coach and I sit at home watching the games. Lilja and Saturday have been dynamite so far this year, but the other side Pollak and Diem tend to look lost and tired at times; really scary when every win depends on protecting the QB especially when his name is Peyton Manning 3 time MVP and hopefully 4 time after this year. The Colts have given up about 6 sacks fewer than the Saints, but have been pitiful on the run ypg, so because of the running game I give the Saints the edge.




Special Teams


Colts -- 3.5
Saints -- 4



The Colts have been much better at fielding kickoffs than in the past and the punting by McAfee has been pretty darn good. But we suck at returning kicks. So I give the Saints the edge here because I believe it will be years before we ever see a Colts player return a kick for a TD and the Saints have two dynamic returners in Courtney Roby and Reggie Bush. The Colts were using Jamie Silva for crying out loud.



Defensive Line



Robert Mathis, Antonio Johnson, Daniel Muir, Dwight Freeney -- 4.5


Charles Grant, Anthony Hargrove (would be Sedrick Ellis but got injured) Remi Ayodele, Will Smith--4




Both units are great but with Ellis out for the Saints; I give the edge to the Colts. Two really good reasons: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, the best combo ends in the league.




Linebackers



Tyjuan Hagler, Gary Brackett, Clint Session -- 3


Scott Fujita, Jonathan Vilma, Scott Shanle -- 4.5




The is probably the biggest match up advantage the Saints have. Fujita and Vilma are both good enough to be in the Pro Bowl. Colts rely alot on Gary Brackett, but I still don't see him as an elite linebacker in this league (he is good and i love his leadership, but skill wise not elite). But those backers as good as they are would not line up against our backers they would face Dallas Clark whom I believe would give any linebacker fits. Regardless, the Saints win the battle of linebackers.



Secondary

Kelvin Hayden, Bob Sanders, Antoine Bethea, Jerruad Powers, Marlin Jackson, Jacob Lacey, Melvin Bullit, Aaron Francisco, Anybody but Tim Jennings and I feel pretty good right now.

4.5

Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, Roman Harper, Tracy Porter, Malcolm Jenkins, Pierson Pioleau, Usama Young, Randall Gay

5



Normally, I would put our secondary unit up against anyone, but with the way Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter have been picking off quarterbacks quicker than I could pick my nose, it's kind of scary. I seen J. Greer knocking passing down and the snot out of guys this year. Then I would argue well the Colts are much deeper with Bullit, Jackson, and Lacey, but then again the Saints have Usama Young and Randall Gay which have had pretty good seasons in the past and are quite capable of filling in. I would say right now it is a really close call but with all the interceptions the Saints are coming down with they again get the slight edge.



Grand Totals

Colts = 37
Saints = 38.5 (ah Crap!)

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In the Common Opponent, both teams struggled stopping Miami and their Wildcat offense, but probably on the bias side I will choose the Colts for the simple fact that the had the ball less then 15 minutes of the game and still won. I know, I know, the Saints came from behind and won against Miami, but the Colts came from behind and won as well, but did so much more efficiently because they barely had the ball.

Common Opponent Winner is Colts

____________________________________________________

Ten Simulation Games between the two Teams

Game 1
Colts 18
Saints 40 Ouch!

Game 2
Colts 30
Saints 20 Yes!

Game 3
Colts 27
Saints 13

Game 4
Colts 37
Saints 34

Game 5
Colts 10
Saints 28

Game 6
Colts 41
Saints 24

Game 7
Colts 31
Saints 20

Game 8
Colts 25
Saints 30

Game 9
Colts 10
Saints 35

Game 10
Colts 23
Saints 52

Game 11 (Tiebreaker)
Colts 26
Saints 20

As you can see even the head to head computer simulator had a hard time as they were tied at 5 wins each after playing 10 games. Maybe the Colts got lucky but they won the Game 11 Tiebreaker and the Common Opponent Game leaving the Saints only win with the head 2 head analysis.

So who would win if the Colts played the Saints this year......

I think the real answer would be us the fans. However, with my predictions it looks like the Colts squeeze out a close one.

Wednesday Worries

The Worries (Injury Report)

Questionable

Donald Brown -- Shoulder

Kelvin Hayden -- Knee

Marlin Jackson -- Knee

Doubtful

Tyjuan Hagler -- Elbow -----------Out for Season with Ruptured Biceps

Probable

Reggie Wayne -- Groin

Dwight Freeney--Knee

Colts Widget

The Edge Cut by Seahawks

FYI

Our beloved Edge has been cut by Seattle. He wasn't producing much for them only around 2.7 ypg, but I don't believe he had many oppertunities. I feel he could still contribute to some team. Maybe the Colts could snatch him up as a third string or second string to allow D. Brown more time to get healthy. I have never cared much for Chad Simpson's contributions to the team, and would not be sad to see him go.

Polian bring the Edge back to Indy.

The Tuesday Tango

Let us not get carried away with the San Fran game. By no means did they expose us like some say.

So then what happened?

Its simple. The NFL is full of teams that use gimmicks and gadgets to win games. Hell, even the Colts use a gadget to win with J. Addai's halfback pass to R. Wayne. But what the 9ers did was a gimmick to confuse the offense, which at times it worked great for them, but just like the Phins game gimmicks CANNOT beat the elite teams.

What was the 49ers gimmick for the game?

The main gimmick that stood out was when they were on defense. There were many downs where all defenders were in a standing position before the snap. This created confusion in the sense that it was unclear not only who was in a pass rush, but also it takes away the quick slant routes the Colts love to use; because with the defense standing you cannot simply throw over them especially on the short routes. It definitely made the lanes more narrow even for an accurate passer like Big P, and as a consequence he struggled a little bit; many throws were either over or under thrown, which is not characteristic of Peyton. Big P was either confused at times or just fighting one hell of a Halloween hangover!? Been there Peyton.

Even with this defensive gimmick, the Colts were moving the ball up and down the field and traded many opportunities for TDs for field goals. However, it did seem to work at times, so I would not be surprised to see other teams later this year try a similar gimmick, especially the Pats, they love trying new things to confuse Manning.

But, again like everything else give Manning a week to watch the tape and he will have mastered this gimmick as well. I would have loved to see P get another TD, but I am more than satisfied for another season starting 7-0.

Enjoy it; this will be a special year.

Still No Consistent Kick Returner

Every year I keep wishing the Colts will draft for a kick returner. You know someone exciting and electric.

And every year nada. We use Chad F*&!ing Simpson.

Is it possible that there just isn't a decent return man on the roster? I would say probably, but now with Hank Baskett, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, and once Gonzo returns we have plenty depth at receiver. So why not utilize either Garcon or Baskett to return kicks both have good speed and usually get yac yards on receptions. Please just let me see one attempt.

Any opinions on this...

Welcome Colts Fans

First and foremost, I would like to thank Stampede Blue at SBNation. Anyone interested in good Colts information look there. Definately my favorite site. And an inspiration to want to try it myself.